Between 12,000 and 16,000 hybrid-electric aircraft could be needed in the U.S. between 2030 and 2040 to support a new regional air travel model called “Direct Aviation,” according to a newly released market outlook from Virginia-based aerospace company Electra.

The Direct Aviation Market Outlook argues that advances in hybrid-electric propulsion could create a large new market for short-distance air travel by allowing aircraft to operate from smaller access points located closer to travelers, potentially reducing dependence on long drives and major airport hubs.

The concept focuses primarily on trips between 50 and 265 miles, a segment the company identifies as the “heart of the market” for regional mobility. Electra estimates Americans make more than 33 million passenger trips daily within that distance band, generating roughly 1.2 trillion person-miles annually, with the vast majority of those trips currently made by car. Across the broader 50-to-500-mile band, Electra estimates travelers make more than 35 million passenger trips daily, generating roughly 1.6 trillion person-miles annually.

The report estimates that 85% of those routes currently lack air service within 40 miles of either the origin or destination.

Many travelers on these routes currently rely on driving because existing commercial airline service is either unavailable or inconvenient, according to the report. The company says direct regional flights could significantly reduce travel times, particularly during periods of heavy road congestion. Its report estimates that nearly 4.9 million daily trips could save travelers more than one hour, while some routes could reduce travel times by over three hours.

The proposal centers on Electra’s EL9 aircraft, a hybrid-electric ultra-short takeoff and landing airplane currently under development. The nine-passenger aircraft is designed to carry up to 2,700 pounds of payload and operate from spaces as short as 150 feet, with sound levels below 75 decibels at 300 feet during takeoff, comparable, it notes, to typical urban background noise. Electra says the EL9 would combine operational flexibility similar to a helicopter with the economics and simplicity of a fixed-wing aircraft.

Unlike many electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft developers targeting urban air taxi operations, Electra’s strategy focuses on regional routes connecting suburbs, smaller cities, leisure destinations, and major airport hubs. The report outlines several potential categories for service, including intercity travel, airport feeder routes, tourism-focused connections, and service to smaller communities that currently have limited air access.

Among the intercity examples highlighted in the report are routes between the Washington, D.C. area and New York, which the company says generates roughly 18,000 daily car trips, and Austin to Houston, with nearly 13,700 daily trips. Electra projects some of those journeys could be completed in approximately 60 to 100 minutes door-to-door, depending on the route.

It also highlights routes with no existing commercial air service, such as Jacksonville to Orlando airport and New York to Atlantic City, where travelers currently face long drives or indirect commercial flight options.

Electra’s projected time savings are based on door-to-door travel comparisons against rush-hour driving conditions at the 85th percentile, according to the report’s methodology. The company’s analysis also assumes approximately 20 minutes of waiting time at access points and includes local ground travel to and from departure and arrival locations.

The report is based on an analysis of U.S. ground transportation patterns using travel data collected during a three-month period in spring 2025. According to the company, the study examined trips between 50 and 500 driving miles and compared projected door-to-door travel times against existing transportation methods.

Electra is among several advanced air mobility developers working with regulators as the industry moves toward commercialization. The company has previously participated in Federal Aviation Administration initiatives related to integrating next-generation aircraft into the national airspace system.