As climate targets tighten and advanced air mobility continues to develop, the global aviation industry faces one of its most complex challenges today: meeting its net-zero carbon goals by 2050 as recent data shows Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) production growth slowing down in 2026.

One of the sector’s technological strategies for its net-zero goals is the use of SAF; however, despite its undeniable potential to reduce the aviation sector’s climate impact, evidence suggests that SAF alone may not be sufficient to meet that goal.

SAF is a fuel produced from various renewable resources, such as municipal waste, non-food crops, and waste oil and fats, and, in addition to other emerging alternatives, synthetic fuels made from captured carbon and renewable hydrogen. According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), it can reduce CO₂ emissions by up to 80% compared with fossil fuels, making it a very important part of the industry’s decarbonization plans.

But can really sustainable aviation fuel help reach net-zero by 2050?

Sustainable Aviation Fuel’s role in decarbonization

IATA, which represents airlines and global operators, projects that SAF could contribute around 65% of the reduction in aviation emissions needed to reach net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050, making it the main factor (above new technology, offsets, carbon capture, and operational improvements) in the sector’s climate roadmap.

An analysis by the UN agency, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), and other organizations confirms that, if current projections are maintained, around 53% and 71% of decarbonization in air transport is projected to come from SAF.

Despite these projections, SAF production remains a small fraction of what it’s actually needed. According to IATA, in 2025, SAF production was expected to reach 1.9 million tonnes, double the 1 Mt produced in 2024. And in 2026, instead of increasing, SAF production growth is projected to slow to 2.4 Mt, which will barely cover 0.7% of the total fuel consumption the association projects for airlines this year.

Therefore, to meet IATA’s expected contribution by 2050, the industry would need to produce hundreds of millions of tonnes of SAF, which would also require investment in refining capacity, feedstock supply chains, and renewable energy infrastructure. A PwC analysis estimates that it will take around €1 trillion ($1.1 trillion) in capital expenditure simply to build new SAF refineries, a huge task for the industry.

Economic and technological constraints

Governments’ incentive programs in several countries and firmer regulations in regions such as the European Union (which require an increasing percentage of SAF in aviation fuel) have spurred new investment. However, industry participants such as airlines and energy producers agree that without clear mandates and regulatory stability, the necessary production scale will not be achieved.

Furthermore, SAF’s high costs, which are currently two to five times costlier than fossil jet fuel, as noted by the World Economic Forum, represent an economic barrier. These extra costs could lead to higher fares for passengers or financial pressures on airlines if subsidies or tax incentives are not put in place.

In short, SAF remains essential to global net-zero strategies as it has the potential to make a crucial contribution to reducing aviation emissions. However, it alone does not guarantee that the net-zero target for 2050 will be met without a combination of better policies, massive investments, and technological development.