The EU SAF Mandate Under Pressure
By Samuel Herrera, Carbon Free Aviation Journalist, 5 Nov 2025
The year 2025 was meant to mark the beginning of a new era for European aviation: the launch of the ReFuelEU Aviation mandate, through which the European Union aims to ensure that all flights departing from EU airports use at least 2% sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
However, just months before its implementation, growing tensions between airlines, fuel suppliers, and regulators reveal a landscape far more complicated than what Brussels had envisioned.
European airlines are denouncing that fuel suppliers are charging significant markups on SAF, taking advantage of the mandate’s compulsory nature.
Willie Walsh, Director General of the International Air Transport Association (IATA), told Reuters that SAF is being sold at nearly double the market price, with additional surcharges imposed under the pretext of environmental compliance.
According to Walsh, “fuel suppliers are speculating on prices in the name of the environment, and that is completely unacceptable.”
IATA estimates that the increased cost of SAF could add more than $4.4 billion per year to airlines’ operating expenses.
The discontent is shared by Airlines for Europe (A4E), the association representing 17 of the continent’s major carriers, which has called for an urgent review of the EU policy.
A4E warns that the lack of price transparency and compliance surcharges make large-scale SAF use “unviable,” adding that the system, in its current form, “disproportionately increases the cost of flying in Europe, shifting traffic and jobs outside the continent.”
A Mandate Without Enough Supply
The latest European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) annual technical report confirms that current SAF production capacity falls far short of the mandated targets.
While the 6% target for 2030 is still considered achievable, the 20% goal for 2035 is at risk due to insufficient investment in new facilities and the cancellation of flagship projects such as Shell’s Rotterdam biorefinery.
Of the 94 synthetic fuel projects announced worldwide, only one — Infinium’s Roadrunner project in Texas — has reached a final investment decision (FID).
In practice, European SAF production accounted for only 0.6% of total aviation fuel in 2024, according to EASA data — roughly 193,000 tonnes compared to more than 32 million tonnes of conventional jet fuel.
A Lux Research analysis published this October warns that even in an optimistic scenario, projected capacity will not meet the demand required to comply with the mandate, and SAF prices will remain two to three times higher than fossil kerosene.
“The EU has created an ambitious but economically unfeasible mandate,” writes analyst Runeel Daliah, noting that the greatest obstacle is not political will but the real production cost and the scarcity of sustainable feedstocks.
European airlines also warn that the mandate could have counterproductive effects on global competitiveness. Since the requirement applies to all flights departing from the EU — including non-European carriers — airlines such as Emirates or Qatar Airways are only obliged to use SAF for the portion of the flight departing from Europe, while the rest of the journey can run on cheaper fossil fuel.
This means that an Air France flight from Paris to Singapore must use SAF for the entire route, while Emirates only uses it until Dubai.
“The mandate, as it stands, penalizes European airlines and benefits non-EU competitors,” warned Luis Gallego, CEO of the IAG Group, who even suggested that carriers may be forced to request a delay in the 2030 blending targets.
The problem is not the climate ambition behind the mandate, but the lack of coordination between incentives, regulation, and industrial capacity.
EASA emphasizes the need for a “continuous ramp-up” of production and stronger financial support to create a functional market.
IATA insists that without urgent intervention — such as direct subsidies, tax exemptions, or investment credits — the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 will remain out of reach.
A Turning Point for Europe
Europe now faces a structural dilemma: how to maintain its climate leadership without undermining the economic viability of its aviation sector.
The ReFuelEU Aviation mandate aims to accelerate decarbonization, but if price and supply imbalances are not corrected, it risks becoming a brake rather than a boost to progress.