Faced with the growing urgency to decarbonize aviation, the economies of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) could reach a production capacity of up to 8.5 million barrels per day of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2050. This is according to the ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report, published on January 23, 2026, in Jakarta.

The report provides a comprehensive assessment of the regional SAF supply chain for the 2030, 2040, and 2050 horizons, analyzing various supply and demand scenarios in Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, as well as in key import markets such as Japan, Singapore, and South Korea. The study underscores ASEAN’s strategic role as a future regional and global hub for SAF production.

The research was conducted by GHD, with financial support from Global Affairs Canada through the Canadian Trade and Investment Development Fund (CTIF), implemented by Cowater International, in partnership with the Institute of Public Administrators of Canada (IPAC). The project also benefited from Boeing’s expertise and the support of the ASEAN Secretariat, strengthening its technical and strategic scope.

SAF is defined as a renewable or waste-derived fuel that meets sustainability criteria, significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions, and is fully compatible with existing aircraft and infrastructure. In the ASEAN context, the main raw materials identified include used cooking oil, rice bran, cassava bran, and forestry residues—resources widely available in the region.

According to the report, all the ASEAN countries analyzed have the potential to position themselves as net exporters of SAF. Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand stand out for their abundant availability of bio-based raw materials, while Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines offer competitive advantages in terms of logistics and distribution costs to importing markets such as Japan, Singapore, and South Korea.

In addition to its export role, ASEAN is also emerging as a significant consumer market for SAF. Regional demand is estimated to grow from approximately 15,000 barrels per day in 2030 to over 700,000 barrels per day in 2050, driven primarily by Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, along with other high-growth Asian economies such as Japan and South Korea.

The report also analyzes SAF production technologies. Currently, the most widely used technology is hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), which costs approximately twice as much as conventional jet fuel, with raw materials being the main cost factor. Other methods, such as combined gasification with Fischer-Tropsch (FT), jet alcohol (ATJ), and hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), have costs four to seven times higher, although this gap is expected to narrow as the technologies mature and are scaled up to industrial levels.

Satvinder Singh, Deputy Secretary-General of the ASEAN Economic Community, noted that the report confirms the region’s structural comparative advantage, particularly in the availability of sustainable biofuels, and emphasized that the growing global demand for SAF represents a clear market opportunity for ASEAN.

For her part, Sharmine Tan, Boeing’s regional sustainability manager for Southeast Asia, stressed that the rapid growth of commercial aviation in the region makes it essential to increase the supply of SAF, along with the incorporation of more efficient aircraft, to ensure the responsible development of the sector.

From GHD, Sachin Narang, Executive Advisor for Energy and Infrastructure, highlighted that the abundance of agricultural and forestry residues in ASEAN could contribute to reducing SAF costs, closing the gap with fossil fuels and facilitating the adoption of alternative technologies through public policies, innovation, and industrial scaling.

The ASEAN SAF 2050 Outlook report is based on the joint Canada-ASEAN technical and economic assessment published in April 2025 and reinforces ASEAN’s vision as a key player in the energy transition and decarbonization of aviation in Asia-Pacific. The content is being created by Carbon Free Aviation.

Source and Credits to ASEAN

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